When several cases of Ebola were reported in the U.S. in 2014, the experts told us not to worry. After all, the odds of an epidemic were small. When there are terrorist attacks, the experts tell us not to worry. After all, more people die from falling off ladders than they do from terrorism.
But as Taleb asks, if you read in the paper that 10,000 people were killed yesterday, would you assume a terror attack or a huge spike in the incidence of ladder accidents?
Also, is Ebola rare because it is intrinsically rare, or is it rare because we worry about it and then take precautions? And if we stopped taking precautions, how many people could die?Frequency is not how you measure risk for catastrophic events. Click To Tweet
Frequency is not how you measure risk for catastrophic events. Nassim Taleb explains how you should understand and view these risks in a quick and easy 10-minute video.